October flipped the script. After months of stocks doing the heavy lifting, bonds led the TSP: the F Fund gained 2.47% while all three stock funds slipped. Meanwhile, the 2027 COLA is set, FEHB premiums are going up, and Open Season starts next Monday.
Here’s what matters, in about three minutes.
The headlines
- COLA in January: 2.6% for FERS, 3.6% for CSRS and Social Security. FERS retirees get the smaller number because of the FERS “diet COLA” rule: when inflation runs above 3%, FERS gets 1 percentage point less.
- FEHB premiums are up 10.9% on average for 2027. That’s the average enrollee increase. Your plan could be higher or lower, which is why Open Season comparisons matter this year.
- The proposed 2027 pay raise is 0%. That’s a proposal, not a final number. Congress or the President can still change it before January.
- Current government funding runs out December 11. Keep an eye on it, but remember a funding deadline doesn’t change your retirement benefits.
October TSP scorecard
| Fund | October | Year to date | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| G Fund | +0.46% | +3.89% | +4.61% |
| F Fund | +2.47% | -0.35% | +0.03% |
| C Fund | -0.87% | +11.75% | +12.09% |
| S Fund | -0.40% | +11.17% | +10.10% |
| I Fund | -2.89% | +13.09% | +17.02% |
Source: TSP rates of return, through October 31, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Bonds led, stocks slipped
- F Fund (bonds): The month’s winner at +2.47%, its best October on record. It’s still slightly negative for the year, which shows how much ground bonds had to make up.
- G Fund (government securities): +0.46%, its best month of 2026. Steady, as always.
- C Fund (large U.S. companies): Down 0.87% for the month, but still up nearly 12% for the year.
- S Fund (small and mid-size U.S. companies): A smaller dip at -0.40%, and up just over 11% for the year.
- I Fund (international): The biggest drop in October at -2.89%. Even so, it’s still the #1 TSP fund for the year at +13.09%.
Don’t chase last month’s winner
In September, the G Fund led. In October, it was the F Fund. Next month could be anyone.
That’s the problem with moving money based on last month’s results: by the time a fund shows up at the top of the list, the move already happened. One month is noise.
A better approach:
- Pick a mix you can hold through good months and bad ones.
- Rebalance on a schedule, such as once or twice a year, rather than reacting to headlines.
- Consider whether an L Fund fits. L Funds hold all five funds and shift toward a more conservative mix automatically as your target date gets closer.
Coming up this week
- Tuesday: Election Day. Nothing changes for your benefits on Wednesday. Any change to federal pay or benefits still has to go through Congress.
- Thursday or soon after: IRS 2027 TSP limits. The new contribution limits could be announced any day. We’ll cover them when they’re official.
- Monday, November 9: Open Season opens. It runs through December 14. With FEHB premiums up 10.9% on average, this is a year to actually compare plans instead of rolling over.
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Are you a federal employee within 12 months of retirement, or already retired, with $1 million+ invested? Book a free 15-minute Fit Call. For more on making the most of your TSP, get a free copy of Dallen’s book, Building Wealth in the TSP, or download our free Federal Retirement Roadmap.
Educational only, not tax, investment, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult your own tax, legal and financial advisors for personalized advice. Haws Federal Advisors | HawsFederalAdvisors.com